essays by ryan minic

Expectation Arbitrage

by | May 17, 2026

One of the things I’ve learned from having a disability is that people tend to underestimate you.

When I was growing up, there were countless times when people told me all the things I’d never or should never be able to do because I have cerebral palsy:

  • – You’ll never be able to drive without hand controls.
  • – You shouldn’t be in the school science fair because you can’t walk.
  • – You’ll never live a normal life as an adult.

None of these predictions were based on evidence. They were projections of what other people thought I was capable of.

And none of them turned out to be true.

Over time, I discovered something important: one of the most powerful motivating forces in life is proving people wrong. There is no sweeter form of revenge than doing the thing other people said you couldn’t do.

And when people underestimate you, it can become a massive advantage.

I call this expectation arbitrage.

Arbitrage is the practice of buying something at a low price and selling it at a higher price. I used to do this on eBay as a teenager. I’d buy something at a low price, resell it for more, and keep the difference.

Expectation arbitrage works the same way.

The only difference is that instead of profiting in money, you profit in something far more valuable—something that can’t be taken away.

When people underestimate you, they’re pricing you low. They assume you’re less capable than you are.

And every time you prove them wrong, you capture the spread.

The first time you prove someone wrong, you gain a little confidence.

The second time, you gain a little more.

Eventually, you begin taking on bigger risks because the upside is almost always greater than the downside.

Now remember: people will underestimate you for anything – your background, your age, your appearance, whatever.

It doesn’t matter.

Whenever someone prices you lower than your actual potential, an opportunity exists. Their low expectations become your edge.

And over time, the repeated act of proving people wrong compounds into something far more valuable than money.

It compounds into self-belief.